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— Office Properties Quarterly — March 2017

Building Denver today and tomorrow.

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I

f you’ve driven past downtown

Denver in the last year, you’ve

probably noticed a crane or

two in the sky – or 30. It isn’t

news either that Denver is

seeing one of the biggest population

spikes in the country. According to

the Colorado Office of Economic

Development, Denver’s current pop-

ulation of 2.7 million is expected

to increase nearly 50 percent to a

staggering 3.9 million by the year

2030.

With Denver’s active-friendly

cityscape and beautiful surround-

ing landscapes, Denver’s workforce

enjoys a happier and healthier

quality of life and, for that reason

alone, it’s obvious why so many

businesses have been flocking

to the area as well – not to men-

tion our international airport and

business-friendly government.

Even with all the new people and

businesses coming to town, there

is one question investors and office

building owners are asking them-

selves: Is the office pipeline out-

pacing the demand? The answer:

Not necessarily.

Denver’s highly skilled workforce

has enticed several larger tech

firms to move or consider moving

to Denver and, compared with the

Bay Area or the East Coast, the cost

of living and rental rates for office

space in Denver are significantly

lower and are attractive qualities

to now-cost-conscious tech execu-

tives.

Let’s think about why the Den-

ver workforce is so talented. One

reason could be that many of the

graduates who

are coming here

for education are

staying after and

getting jobs. It also

is likely that many

of these gradu-

ates are becom-

ing entrepreneurs

and starting busi-

nesses. In 2015,

Denver topped

the list of venture

capital funding at

$800 million. That

was more than California, Texas,

New York and Massachusetts. With

regard to migration studies, it is

known that in a given period the

lion’s share of a migrant popula-

tion from state to state are in their

20s and 30s. Denver’s recent and

continuing population boom is rich

with young, educated individuals

looking for jobs or eager to start

businesses.

In the 1980s, Denver’s industry

buzz was all oil and gas. That sec-

tor’s biggest firms commanded

nearly 50 percent of central busi-

ness district’s leased office space,

leaving Denver exposed to the

boom-and-bust nature of the

industry. With the decline of this

industry in the recent past, we’ve

seen a lot of sublease space come

to market, though it should be

noted that Encana did recently

renew its 335,000-square-foot lease

in Republic Plaza at 370 17th St.

As mergers and consolidations in

the oil and gas industry took place,

however, many of the giants vacat-

ed the Denver marketplace, leav-

ing behind a staggering amount

of sublease space. Marketwide,

Denver has roughly 1.3 million sf of

sublease space available and, out of

that, the energy sector accounts for

nearly 900,000 sf of it.

Job growth continues to be a

big driver for the development of

new product. According to the U.S.

Bureau of Labor and Statistics,

Denver came in seventh out of the

51 largest metro areas in terms of

job growth. With the addition of

45,000 jobs, Denver’s job growth

rate came in at 3.2 percent. With

over 52,000 units of multifam-

ily in the pipeline and new home

construction, Denver’s residential

markets are postured to receive the

massive population influx.

As for office inventory, the pipe-

line is the largest Denver has seen

since 2000.

“Twenty-two projects totaling 4.5

million square feet are currently

under construction or renova-

tion,” according to Newmark Grubb

Knight Frank’s fourth-quarter 2016

market research. “1401 Lawrence

(301,130 square feet in the CBD),

Industry Phase III (a 72,000-square-

foot addition to the co-working

facility in Midtown submarket) and

8181 Arista Place (65,971 square feet

in the Northwest submarket) deliv-

ered (fourth) quarter.”

While this information may

seem daunting, the strength in our

workforce’s education, the unprec-

edented in-migration of 20- and

30-somethings, and the job growth

rate should offer investors a sense

of comfort.

Denver continues to consistently

outperform the nation in nearly

every aspect of growth. Forbes

lists Denver as the best place for

businesses and careers. While the

pipeline currently may be outpac-

ing demand, the population and job

growth we are experiencing here

in Denver should make up for any

disparity in the long run. It is a wild

card and time will tell. One thing is

for sure, it has been an interesting

and exciting few years here in Den-

ver with many more on the horizon.

I think it’s safe to say that we are

no longer that little cowtown in the

West.

s

Is the office pipeline outpacing demand?

Broker Perspective

Zach Smith

Broker associate,

Unique Properties,

Denver

Marketwide, Denver

has roughly 1.3 million

sf of sublease space

available and, out

of that, the energy

sector accounts for

nearly 900,000 sf of it.