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April 2018 — Construction, Design & Engineering — Page 17 www.crej.com INTRODUCTION Fully-autonomous vehicles are currently in the testing phase and most industry experts believe these vehicles will soon be available. AVs could disrupt transportation since households would likely need fewer cars to meet transportation needs. For example, one AV could drop off a family member, and drive itself to pick up another. It is also likely that ride-hailing companies (or transportation network companies, TNCs), like Uber and Lyft, are expected to convert over time to vehicle fleets using autonomous technology. Once the service is driverless, it is generally expected that the cost of using ride-hailing for daily travel for urban residents will be 1/3 to 2/3 less than owning a personal vehicle. If many urban residents then give up their cars, personal vehicle ownership rates could decline significantly and parking could be significantly impacted. LEVELS OF AV TECHNOLOGY One key to the projection of AV adoption is the development of the technology. The Society of Automotive Engineers has categorized six levels of automation, which have subsequently been adopted by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Level 0 has no automation, while Level 1 has function-specific automation such as adaptive cruise control. Level 2 has a combination of automated functions, such as today’s Teslas. Level 3 automation will provide a complete set of functions, allowing limited self-driving, but will still require a driver at the wheel to take over control. The AVs being tested on the road today are L3, although as of the end of 2017, Waymo is transitioning to L4, by moving the human backup to the back seat. There is only a button for the human to depress to order the vehicle to the side of the road. L4 vehicles can be driverless, but only in specific areas that have been mapped and operations tested. TNCs are expected to begin operating L4 vehicles in limited areas in a few cities as soon as 2021. The services will be initially limited to core areas, not entire cities, but over time will be radiated outward as more areas are mapped. L5 vehicles will be able to operate driverless in any conditions, in any area. Snow and heavy rain are among the conditions that have yet to be solved before L5 can be come a reality. TIMING OF AVs and PARKING DISRUPTION An overview createdby Walker Consultants Image Source: http://blog.carrotinsurance.com/getting- from-a-to-b-the-futuristic-way/ ISSUES AFFECTING THE TIMELINE FOR AV ADOPTION The first issue is the timeline for the technology to be proven and accepted by both the Federal Government and the public. In an August 2017 publication and then in a November 2017 webinar, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) discussed the issues and timeline for adoption of AVs for public transit. The TRB presented the following timeline for the technology to reach L4. The report lays out the investments that are required by the Federal Government to resolve legal and regulatory issues, with every indication that the US Government intends to support the implantation of L4 transit as soon as practicable. It is noted that buses and shuttles operate on fixed routes, whereas TNCs, which they call aTaxis, will operate on demand anywhere within a defined zone. However at L4 they can be driverless in those specific areas. This study did not discuss L5 operations, which would not be a major issue for transit, as it always operates within defined areas. It also does not indicate a timeline for availability of L5 vehicles for sales to consumers for personal use. It is noted that this TRB timeline for L4 aTaxis is slower than many other projections. The consensus view of a number of national business and automotive consultancies is that by 2030, 20% of new cars sold in the U.S. could be L4 or L5, with the majority sold to TNCs at that milestone. These studies, however, rarely discuss vehicles on the road. According to the US DOT, there were 242.9 million registered passenger vehicles in the U.S. as of 2015, which translates to about 256 million today. The average age of cars on U.S. roads is about 11.5 years. CONCLUSION The AV timing studies and the transportation disruption studies all share similar assumptions, which determine both the timing and the impact of these changes. In order for AVs to saturate the vehicle market, the cost of the technology would have to be low enough to entice consumers and TNC companies, and consumers will need to trust the safety and reliability of AV technology. If a parking facility serves an area or campus that tends to grow with population and economic development, parking demand would likely grow through about 2030 and only then begin to decline and reach the ultimate impact no sooner than 2050. Parking structures that serve individual sites are likely to be more affected, with an average reduction of parking demand nationally of 10 to 40% per unit of land use. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Walker Consultants is the global leader in providing parking consulting and parking design services. Founded in 1965, we pioneered the field of parking consulting. Today the firm has over 300 employees delivering a wide range of parking planning, design, engineering, and restoration services. The firm is based in the U.S. with 17 domestic offices and 1 in the United Arab Emirates, is ranked #240 in Engineering News Record’s Top 500 Design Firms and #13 in Building Design + Construction’s Giants 300 Engineering/Architecture Firms. We serve a broad spectrum of markets including healthcare, education, government, aviation, residential, retail and commercial development, entertainment, hospitality and athletic venues. This diversity allows our staff the luxury of collaborating with a large cross section of client types and developing best practices for their specific development needs, helping them unlock the potential of their projects. For further information contact: Robert Stanley, Vice President Walker Consultants 5350 S. Roslyn Street, Suite 220 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 303-694-6622