CREJ

July 2021 — Health Care & Senior Housing Quarterly — Page 27 www.crej.com SENIOR HOUSING — MARKET UPDATE Let us Guide Your Senior Living Community to Success Consulting and Managed Services Call today to learn more. 720-400-3616 • Operational expertise • Regulatory compliance • Resident wellness programs • Clinical expertise • Sales and marketing • Resident satisfaction • Human resources and talent recruitment • Financial oversight • Innovative technologies • Centralized procurement • Project feasibility and development Independent Living | Assisted Living | Memory Care | www.WellAge.com | 12136W. Bayaud Ave. Suite 200, Lakewood, CO 80228 Jackson Creek Senior Living (CO) The Lodge at Greeley Senior Living (CO) Sopris Lodge at Carbondale (CO) Arbor View Senior Living (CO) The Lodge at Grand Junction Senior Living (CO) Carriage House (CO) Sterling Ridge Senior Living (NV) Willowood at Mustang Senior Living (OK) Emerald Square Senior Living (OK) Our Communities P rior to the pandemic, Den- ver’s senior housing occu- pancy rate, inclusive of independent living, assisted living and memory care, was 87.7% at the end of first-quarter 2020, ranking Denver 14th out of the NIC MAP’s 31 primary markets. The NIC MAP provides a snap- shot of the senior housing sector’s occupancy performance. By the end of first quarter 2021, Denver’s senior housing occupancy rate had declined by 10.2 percentage points to 77.4% – ranking 20th and falling 1.5 percentage points further than the primary markets’ pre-pandemic benchmark during the same time period. While all mar- kets saw signifi- cant occupancy rate declines since the beginning of the pandemic, it is important to note that the deteriora- tion in occupancy has been more acute in some markets than in others. For exam- ple, in the height of the pandemic, between the first quarter of 2020 and the first quar- ter of 2021, St. Louis recorded the greatest loss in occupancy (13.4 percentage points), while Chicago experienced the least deteriora- tion in occupancy (5.8 percentage points). Looking specifically at the Denver metropolitan area and the distribution of properties by occu- pancy levels, significantly more of Denver’s senior housing properties fell into the lowest occupancy cat- egory of less than 80% occupied and significantly fewer into the highest (95% or more). However, while about 45% of Denver’s senior housing properties have occupancy at 80% or below, there is considerable vari- ation in property-level occupancy performance. n Ingredients of recovery. Senior housing occupancy was strained at the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 due to supply and demand dynamics that varied across the country. Development going into the pandemic had started to wane in many markets that had reached the end of robust construction cycles. However, inventory growth remained high as the relatively robust lending environment of 18 to 24 months prior that supported construction starts before the pan- demic resulted in completed prop- erties entering the market. The pandemic caused a cata- clysmic loss in demand. Move-ins ground to a halt during the coun- try’s lockdown and many organi- zations enforced moratoriums on bringing new residents into their communities to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 virus among cur- rent residents and staff. At the same time, state and local govern- ments imposed a seemingly mov- ing target of safety protocols and admissions guidelines, and an assortment of visitation restrictions of various rigor. Demand also took a hit from uncertainty about the duration of the crisis and weakened consumer confidence. Currently, across the primary mar- kets, senior housing occupancy is at historic lows, but there are glim- mers of light at the end of the tun- nel. Recent data from NIC Analytics’ Executive Survey Insights, and from The pandemic’s impact on market fundamentals Lana Peck Senior principal, National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care NIC At the end of the first quarter, significantly more of Denver’s senior housing properties fell into the lowest occupancy category of less than 80% occupied and significantly fewer into the highest (95% or more) than first-quarter 2020. However, while about 45% of Denver’s senior housing properties have occupancy at 80% or below, there is considerable variation in property-level occupancy performance. Please see Peck, Page 30